Road to peace in Myanmar

Context:

Myanmar has been embroiled in internal conflict since the military coup in February 2021, resulting in a de facto division between the military government and the Resistance. The situation has escalated, posing serious risks to civilians and prompting concern from the UN Secretary-General and other experts.

Ground Reality and Humanitarian Crisis:

• Escalating Conflict: The expansion of conflict in Rakhine State and the forcible recruitment of youth into the military is worrying. Furthermore, there is a significant increase in air strikes by the military and estimated millions displaced, with dire humanitarian needs.
• Challenges in Aid Distribution: Despite vast humanitarian needs, the flow of aid remains minimal due to logistical challenges. Myanmar's internal stakeholders, including the SAC and the Resistance, are unable to de-escalate violence or facilitate humanitarian assistance, necessitating external help from regional partners like ASEAN, China, India, and Bangladesh.
• Need for External Assistance and Dialogue: Myanmar's friends must push for an early cessation of fighting and suggest pathways for the nation's return to normalcy. ASEAN's efforts, like the Five Point Consensus, have fallen short, underscoring the need for innovative dialogue mechanisms.

India's Role and Regional Implications:

• India's Potential Contribution: India, as a major neighbor, possesses the capacity to aid Myanmar's resolution process. Indian experts should develop practical proposals considering power dynamics and regional geopolitics to advise policymakers and shape the regional approach.
• Threat to Regional Peace: The crisis in Myanmar not only affects its internal stability but also poses a threat to regional peace and progress. India's engagement is crucial to prevent further escalation and ensure stability in its eastern neighborhood.
• Call for Pragmatic Solutions: Indian experts can play a vital role in crafting pragmatic solutions that address Myanmar's complex dynamics, considering historical context and regional implications. India's proactive involvement can mitigate the risk of regional destabilization stemming from Myanmar's prolonged crisis.