US-Japan-Philippines trilateral isn’t just about development

Context:

China's assertive foreign policy has led to the formation of several minilateral groupings in recent years, including the resurgence of the Quad and the establishment of AUKUS, driven by concerns over Beijing's aggressive actions.

US-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Partnership:

• Trilateral partnership: The US, Japan, and the Philippines are currently engaged in a trilateral partnership, with the inaugural Trilateral Leaders' Summit that aims to enhance cooperation and peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
• Addressing concerns: While China opposes the formation of exclusive groupings, citing concerns about regional peace and stability, the trilateral partnership seeks to address shared concerns regarding China's assertiveness and coercive policies.
• Convergence of interests: The significance of the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral lies in Japan's defense alliance with the US and the Philippines' status as a major non-NATO ally, reflecting a convergence of interests among the three countries in response to the China threat.

Philippines' Response and Strategic Shifts:

• Reduce reliance on ASEAN: Despite implicit discussions about China, the trilateral summit aims to enhance cooperation without targeting any specific country. However, Philippines' strategic shift towards extra-regional powers reflects its efforts to reduce reliance on fellow ASEAN members amid strained relations with China.
• Strong backing: The potential involvement of the US and Japan in any conflict between China and Philippines underscores the significance of the trilateral partnership, offering substantial backing for the Philippines against China's assertiveness in the South China Sea.
• Effectiveness of Minilateral Groupings: While minilateral groupings like the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral and the Quad aim to address security challenges posed by China, questions are being raised about their efficacy. Despite their proliferation, few have translated into concrete actions, casting doubt on their ability to effectively tackle complex security issues.